Date: May 22, 2017
Growing concerns over the turmoil engulfing President Donald Trump’s administration weighed on risk appetite, as investors rush towards havens. Gold rebounded following Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey a week ago, as well as reports he shared intelligence with Russian officials. In the latest twist, Trump is said to have asked Comey in February to drop an investigation into a former national security adviser, raising questions he may have obstructed justice. The administration’s problems are seen as taking its focus away from policies to aid growth, hurting the US currency.
Date: May 15, 2017
Populist concern over Europe wanes with the victory of centrist candidate Macron in Sunday’s French Presidential election.
Date: May 8, 2017
U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 211,000 jobs last month after a paltry gain of 79,000 in March, and unemployment rate dropped to 4.4 %, near a 10-year low. Labour market continued to strengthen even as growth slowed.
Date: May 2, 2017
President Trump approaches 100th day in office as the administration tries to revive major campaign promises and attempts to achieve solid developments ahead of the day. Tensions with North Korea remain.
Date: April 24, 2017
Investor sentiment remained relatively upbeat on constructive economic data, positive earnings reports and hopes for near-term pro-growth policies with the latest announcement being information on massive US tax cuts to be released next week.
Date: April 10, 2017
Caution spread across financial markets as US jobs data disappointed and geopolitical angst intensified after the first military strike undertaken by President Donald Trump’s administration.
Date: April 3, 2017
The key highlight of the week was the triggering of Article 50 by UK Government. Focus now shifts to whether the UK will be able to pursue divorce talks and trade talks in parallel.
Date: March 27, 2017
GOP pulls the healthcare bill vote as it anticipated lack of votes. It drew much of markets attention as investors viewed it keenly as a key for reflation trade.
Date: March 13, 2017
The increasing possibility of a Fed rate hike this week continued to dominate markets with further support coming from a strong US jobs report on Friday.
Date: March 6, 2017
The most awaited President Trump’s address to Congress, like earlier instances, turned out to be low on policy detail. He set out his main areas of policy focus but left for later the details of what specific measures he wants to take, how they will be funded, and when they will be implemented.
Date: February 27, 2017
Amid looming trade war concerns with the US, Chinese economy is slowing, domestic real estate is becoming increasingly unaffordable and the yuan is depreciating. While attempting to minimize yuan depreciation, China’s foreign currency reserves fell for a seventh straight month in January to $3 trillion, the lowest in almost six years. The government is making persistent efforts, as it acknowledges a rapid slowdown in growth could create social and political instability. China is now prioritizing growth over economic and structural reform as its key objective. The further expansion of credit is expected to ensure the economy’s growth target of 6.5% to 7% is achieved in 2017.
Date: February 20, 2017
It was a strong week in equity markets which rose 1.1% reaching record highs mid-week. This optimism was spurred on by hard data showing retail sales, as well as consumer and producer inflation metrics surprising to the upside.
Date: February 13, 2017
The week saw various currencies move based on political developments. USD ended a 6-week losing streak. We remain positive on the USD. GBP is facing a double whammy of economic and political environment, as UK edges closer to triggering Brexit negotiations with the EU next month. The euro weakened over Europe's upcoming election concerns.
Date: January 30, 2017
Executive orders of President Trump grabbed the markets attention throughout the week with the major highlight being memoranda reviving construction of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines and withdrawing from Nafta. USD is again down this week. US Equities showed positive performance and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2.5 %. Oil traded around $52 a barrel, Gold headed for its longest slump in 3 months closing at $1,189.60 an ounce.
Date: January 23, 2017
The week’s major events were Donald Trump’s inauguration ceremony, and the World Economic Forum at Davos. USD, GBP remained volatile as Theresa May delivered her long expected address on her Brexit strategy. US futures climbed with the USD and bonds fell as investors awaited the start of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Date: January 13, 2017
Volatile USD closed the week with a 0.8% fall, marking the third consecutive week of decline. Stocks globally advanced, particularly the FTSE 100 Index, which completed 14 straight daily gains.
Date: January 3, 2017
As we approach 2017, I thought it may be helpful to offer an insight into our investment outlook. Our goals for the Safety First portfolios remain unchanged; to achieve above inflation and volatility risk adjusted returns, to preserve our clients’ capital, to achieve low volatility, and to deliver these returns on a low cost basis.
Date: January 3, 2017
It has been a year of the unexpected, a volatile year for the markets. Most of the time market predictions were wrong; stoking short term reactions. We have, throughout the year, maintained our Safety First approach.
Date: January 3, 2017
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points. This was as expected, but the Fed’s projection of three rate hikes in 2017 came as a surprise. The move led to USD rally, bond yields surged while stocks retreated.
Date: December 16, 2016
Global markets were calmer with stocks and USD on the rise. Oil closed at $51.5 a barrel amid growing support from both OPEC and non OPEC countries to curb output.
Date: December 7, 2016
Crude prices jumped to the six-week high after OPEC agreed on a deal to cut production, which pushed US crude prices past $50 a barrel.
Date: November 28, 2016
Equity markets have been relatively muted, posting small gains over the week due to the impact of the Donald Trump victory in the US elections. However, there were more significant movements in both the bond market and the currency market as the dollar continued to strengthen and bonds continued to sell off.
Date: November 21, 2016
Global markets have digested Trump's win. The equity market's initial bearish reaction was swift but short lived. The bond rout proved more lasting.
Date: November 15, 2016
Donald Trump won the US Presidential election to become the 45th president of the United States. Republicans gained control of both houses of Congress.
Date: November 8, 2016
Uncertainty continues as the race for the white house is too close to call.
Date: November 4, 2016
We consider it safe to hold all FTIM client portfolio assets in cash ahead of the US election on Tuesday.
Date: October 31, 2016
$ on the rise, positive data from around the world, specifically better than expected GDP figures from the US and UK.
Date: October 24, 2016
Dollar index has reached the highest level since March as strong data further boosted the expectation of Fed rate hike this year.
Date: October 19, 2016
The primary concern of our investment process is the maintenance of the volatility caps placed on each of our Safety First portfolios.
Date: October 11, 2016
Uncertainty, and consequently risk, continues to dominate the thoughts of investors during a protracted global economic recovery.
Date: October 3, 2016
Risk of contagion and systemic risks if Deutsche Bank collapses are significant.
Date: September 28, 2016
Trump edges closer to Clinton on the eve of the First Presidential Debate in the US.
Date: September 16, 2016
Markets remain under pressure; stocks, bonds and commodities all lost ground this week amid concern ECB and BOJ are hesitant to boost stimulus that’s so far done little to revive growth and inflation. Oil trading around $44 a barrel.
Date: September 9, 2016
Fed rate hike probability reduced early in the week, weakening the $, strengthening gold. Oil prices closed around $46 with a week of speculation over the OPEC meeting output cap.
Date: August 31, 2016
UK political turmoil that followed the Brexit vote coincided with the immediate and dramatic fall in UK equity markets as investors rushed to safer assets.
Date: August 26, 2016
Janet Yellen’s speech indicated a rate rise is going to happen this year but that the decision as to when it will be, September or December, is expected to be data dependent.
Date: August 19, 2016
No rise in US inflation so Fed postpone the interest rate hike.
Date: June 23, 2016
No surprises from Central Banks last week, despite softer data in the US and a classic “risk off” week in the UK and Europe.